Examining the NH Primary Election Results

chris_sununu

Back in August we conducted a poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters for the gubernatorial races. Instead of polling by phone we targeted our subjects via social media by scrutinizing their activity in politically oriented Facebook groups or their Twitter activity. This polling method has been essentially written off as biased towards those people who own and frequently make use of computers or smartphones. However, in an age where the rate of ownership and use of these devices is ever rising does it not make sense that our methods of polling should reflect these changes? The New Hampshire state primaries were held last week on September 13th and the results surprised quite a few party insiders who severely underestimated the support of supposedly lesser-known candidates. So the question is: how accurate were the results of our polling method compared to how people actually voted? [Read more…]

An Alternate Look at the NH Governor’s Race

edelblut

With only a month left until the New Hampshire state primaries, the gubernatorial race is heating up on both sides. Major news outlets in the state have released several polls showing the Republican races to be narrowing to just two candidates: Chris Sununu and Ted Gatsas. On the Democratic side, the race is reportedly between Colin Van Ostern and Mark Connolly.

However, just how accurate are these polls? Are they really representative of the likely primary voters in the state? To answer that question, we covertly ran a poll that was selectively and anonymously released to groups of people, both Democrats and Republicans, who were identified as high probability primary voters. We found a significant difference between the major polls and our own. This poll had a sample size of 201 to represent the ~1,327,000 residents of the state. We omitted responses that did not provide an area code to substantiate residence. The following data was collected between 8/3/16 and 8/12/16 at a confidence level of 95% with a margin of error of (+/- 6.9%): [Read more…]